电测与仪表2017，Vol.54Issue(14)：112-116,5.
空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷合理最大值的主成分分析法
A PCA method for ascertaining maximal value of cellular load in spatial load forecasting
摘要
Abstract
If the annual maximum value of measured data of cellular load is used directly to forecast the spatial load of urban power grids, errors caused by measurement, random fluctuations and communication will be probably introduced to the predicted results, which led to reduce prediction accuracy.A method for ascertaining maximal value of cellular load in spatial load forecasting based on PCA is proposed.By analyzing the historical data of cellular load and using PCA, the cellular load is decomposed into the principal components which can characterize cellular load general information and non-principal components which can characterize cellular load random fluctuations.By excluding non-principal components to inhibit the adverse effects caused by random fluctuations, and extract the principal components of cellular load as the reasonable maximum value of cellular load, and it is used for spatial load forecasting.Case study shows that the method is effective.关键词
空间负荷预测/城市电网/主成分分析/元胞/随机波动Key words
spatial load forecasting/urban power network/principal component analysis/cellular/random fluctuation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
肖白,李科,田春筝,王璟,何茜,张凯..空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷合理最大值的主成分分析法[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(14):112-116,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51177009) （51177009）
吉林省自然科学基金资助项目(20140101079JC). （20140101079JC）
