电力系统及其自动化学报2017，Vol.29Issue(7)：144-150,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-8930.2017.07.023
基于可信性理论和效用理论的电网连锁故障综合风险评估方法
Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method of Cascading Failures in Power Grid Based on Credibility Theory and Utility Theory
陈晶 1刘明群 2覃日升 2陈振 3李周龙 4王家华4
作者信息
- 1. 云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司,昆明 650217
- 2. 云南电力科学研究院,昆明 650217
- 3. 四川大学电气信息学院,成都 610065
- 4. 云南临沧供电局,临沧 677000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
A comprehensive risk assessment method is proposed for the cascading failures in power grid based on credi?bility theory and utility theory. The hidden failures resulting from protective relays are considered as the inducing fac?tors of cascading failures,and a fuzzy model of hidden failures is established based on the fuzzy uncertainty of protec?tion mal-operation. In order to quantify the possibility and the severity of cascading failures,the credibility measure of the cascading failures of power grid is calculated using credibility theory. In addition,utility theory is adopted,and non?linear utility functions are constructed to quantify the severity of the deviation of system states after failures from aspects including load loss,overload of lines and out-of-limit voltage. Finally,fuzzy weighting method and entropy weighting method are combined to form a comprehensive synthetic weighting method to solve the comprehensive risk assessment problem of cascading failures in power grid due to hidden failures. The proposed method is applied to a regional power grid in the southwest of China,and simulation results prove its effectiveness and feasibility.关键词
隐性故障/可信性理论/效用理论/组合权重/综合风险Key words
hidden failure/credibility theory/utility theory/synthetic weight/comprehensive risk分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
陈晶,刘明群,覃日升,陈振,李周龙,王家华..基于可信性理论和效用理论的电网连锁故障综合风险评估方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2017,29(7):144-150,7.
