农业工程学报2017，Vol.33Issue(13)：1-7,7.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.13.001
中国居民口粮消费特征变化及安全耕地数量
Variation of grain consumption characteristics and safety cultivated land area in China
摘要
Abstract
With the development of the economy, income growth and urbanization process play a positive role in influencing diet adequacy in China.Rising consumption of meat, egg and milk results in the reduction of ration grain. China's food security policy is also transferred to "Ensuring ration grain safety". This paper aimed to study variation characteristics of grain ration consumption in China and the demand of cultivated land area in China to provide adequate ration grain. So China's government can develop agricultural policies to ensure China's food security. Based on the survey data, from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) on the dietary characteristics of urban and rural residents since 1989, CHNS Panel data of 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2011 were used in this paper. In 2011, 5928 households in nine provinces and three municipalities were covered. For comparison purposes, all grain foods were converted into raw cereals based on the energy coefficients of food products. The major findings of our study were: (1) In recent years, grain ration consumption of China's urban and rural residents decreased significantly. The consumption per capita of urban and rural residents decreased from 168.4 to 111.2 kg, and 209.6 to 131.5 kg from 1997 to 2011, respectively. The national average decreased 196.6 to 124.7 kg in the same period. Now, per capita consumption of grain ration in the USA, Germany, Chinese Taiwan, Japan, etc., remains stable at the level of 125 kg. As such, there might not be enough reduction space for the consumption level of grain ration in the future in China. (2) The disparity of grain ration consumption between cities and countries diminished gradually, from 41.2kg in 1997 to 20.3 kg in 2011. And in 2011, there was no significant difference between the two means. In the end, the consumption level of rural residents was the same as urban residents. (3) The national consumption of grain ration decreased from 243.06 million tons to 168.04 million tons from 1997 to 2011due to the reduction of per capita consumption, and the ratio of national grain ration consumption to total grain production reduced by about 20 per cent in the same period.Correspondingly,the minimum area of cultivated land demanded decreased from 41.29 million hm2 in 1997 to 26.92 million hm2 in 2011. (4) There was little difference between the results based on the data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China and CHNS, and the trends were also roughly the same. However, the consumption of urban residents calculated by the data from NBS was lower than the result by the data from CHNS, and the situation of the consumption of rural residents was just on the contrary. (5) In China, rice and wheat are the major staple foods. The consumption of rice and wheat was significantly reduced compared with other ration grains. So now we don't need so much cultivated land to produce ration grains, and the policy of stabilizing the planting area of ration grains(rice and wheat) implemented by the Chinese central government may not be proper and deserve further development.关键词
农业/粮食安全/作物/城乡居民/口粮消费量/中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)/口粮耕地保障面积Key words
agriculture/food security/crops/urban and rural residents/consumption of ration grains/the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS)/minimum area of cultivated land demanded分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
辛良杰,李鹏辉..中国居民口粮消费特征变化及安全耕地数量[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(13):1-7,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41571095,91325302) （41571095,91325302）
中国工程院重大咨询项目:农业资源环境若干重大战略问题研究(2016-ZD-10) （2016-ZD-10）
