中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(7)：8-17,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170458
经济新常态下中国矿业供给侧改革发展战略研究
Study on the supply-side reform strategy of mining industry underthe new normal economy in China
摘要
Abstract
Mineral industry is a fundamental industry in social-economic development.With the concern on the situation that China's economy enters into New Normal and mineral industry suffers a prolonged slump, the supply-side structural reform in mining industry is promoted through clarifying the long-term relationship between economic growth, urbanization and the consumption of mineral resources.Some questions need to be answered sequentially: does the long-term relationship exist?Does the relationship has any interacting characteristics? What is the changing trend that these interactions have?Are there any significant difference between different mineral resources?And how to propose adaptable strategies according to these differences? Relying on the inference of these questions, this study selects nine mineral resources and does an integrated analysis by combining several methods.A decoupling index is used to describe the decoupling relationship between economic growth and the consumption of mineral resources during the period from 1978 to 2015, and a periodic decoupling-recoupling process is found.Economic growth, urbanization and the consumption of one of nine mineral resources are selected as variables to reveal their causal relationship through Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, and the causal relationship can be divided into three groups: circular causality chain, where a recurrent changing relationship can be significantly found from three variables, including coal, zinc, aluminum and sylvite;reciprocal causation, where one or two alternate changing relationship can be significantly found from two of three variables, including zinc, aluminum, sylvite, petroleum, refined plumbum and refined nickel;one-way causation, where only one successive changing relationship can be significantly found from two of three variables, including iron ore, refined copper and refined nickel.The long-term trend of these relationships is depicted by Impulse Response Function (IRF), where significant differences in size and frequency can be found from the long-term effects derived from the consumption of mineral resources: most of mineral resources can sustain the effects over ten years, such as the impacts of the changing consumption of coal, petroleum zinc and aluminum on the changing GDP;a few responses can sustain the effects only five or six years and then fade away, such as the impacts of the changing consumption of iron ore, sylvite and refined plumbum on the changing GDP.Based on above analysis with a concern on the specific circumstance, we propose the strategic choices as the policy suggestions for the supply-side reform and development: reducing capacity should be treated as a main focus;improving the efficiency of resources utilization;keeping the bottom-line thinking;establishing a market-oriented resource pricing mechanism under a moderate government intervention;promoting the mining economic innovation.关键词
新常态/供给侧改革/经济增长/矿产资源消费Key words
supply-side structural reform/New Normal economy/the consumption of mineral resources/economic growth/urbanization分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
沈镭,武娜,钟帅,孙艳芝,孔含笑..经济新常态下中国矿业供给侧改革发展战略研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):8-17,10.基金项目
科技部国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"专项"中国实现2030年碳排放峰值目标的优化路径研究"项目"技术进步对碳排放的作用规律及参数化"(批准号:2016YFA0602802) （批准号:2016YFA0602802）
国家自然科学基金重点项目"经济新常态下的国家金属资源安全管理及其政策研究"(批准号:71633006) （批准号:71633006）
中国地质图书馆项目"美国地质调查项目管理机制研究"(批准号:cg12016067A1). （批准号:cg12016067A1）
