中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(7)：35-45,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170461
有色金属国际价格波动的影响因素研究
Factors affecting price fluctuations of nonferrous in world market
摘要
Abstract
As widely-circulated bulk commodities in world market, nonferrous metals have attracted great attention to the sharp price fluctuations from the academia and industry in recent years.From their trading volume in world market, major importers and exporters include 20 countries like China, the United States and Brazil, with such four nonferrous metals as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc accounting for a great share.The major importers and exporters of the four metals are selected.Based on the existing researches, this paper chooses variables from supply and demand, real economy as well as currency and finance.And then, the panel data between the above-mentioned importers and exporters are applied to build PVAR model and analyze the price and influencing factors.The impulse response function concerning the prices of the four metals is used to compare the differences between the influencing factors.The findings reveal that: ① the price fluctuations of the four metals are affected by GDP and money supply.Long-term effect comes from supply and demand, and the short-term from supply.②GDP and trading volume shows a strong association with copper price fluctuation, while money supply and CPI are closely related to the fluctuations of aluminum, lead and zinc.③The variables of the major importers and exporters contribute to the price fluctuations of four metals to different degrees.Copper importers and exporters make larger contributions than those of the other three metals.The financial factors of aluminum, lead and zinc importers and exporters show a greater effect than copper ones.This paper proposes suggestions for import of nonferrous metals in China from the perspective of importers.China as the largest importer of the four metals should keep an eye on the prices, establish a sound real-time monitoring and early warning mechanism, respond faster to price fluctuations and hedge risks with financial means.关键词
有色金属价格/影响因素/分矿种比较/PVAR模型Key words
price of nonferrous metals/influence factors/comparison on different minerals/PVAR model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
成金华,尤喆,朱永光,鄢红兵..有色金属国际价格波动的影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):35-45,11.基金项目
国土资源部地质调查项目"中国能源与矿产资源安全动态评价与支持系统建设"(批准号:121201103000150112). （批准号:121201103000150112）
