中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(7)：53-59,7.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170463
中国金属矿产的消费强度与回收潜力分析
Analysis on the consumption intensity and recycling potential of metal resources in China
摘要
Abstract
From the perspective of China'smetal resources security, the main prerequisite of mineral resources security policies are to optimize the supply structure of strategic metal mineral resources, to reduce the proportion of a high degree of dependence on foreign mineral supply structure, to increase China's urban mineral development efficiency through reasonable policy and to explore scrap metal recycling and utilization potential.This paper takes five industrialized countries (United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan) as an example to analyze the law of metal consumption and scrap metal recycling of iron, copper and aluminum through the construction of metal consumption intensity(CI), recycling density(RD) and life distribution function using the data from 1949-2015, and predicts China's consumption of bulk metal and scrap recycling trends.The results showed that: ①Five industrialized countries of iron, copper and aluminum CI experienced the evolving process of rise, slowdown and rapid decline, and RD went through three stages of slow rise, rapid economic growth and rapid growth.CI and RD showed'decoupling' feature in their third stages.②China's mass consumption of iron, copper and aluminum were concentrated after 2000.China's iron, copper and aluminum CI were 540 kg per capita, 8 kg per capita and 23 kg per capita, while RD were 100 kg per capita, 0.5 kg per capita, 3 kg per capita in 2015.Except that consumption of steel and aluminum wasin the platform period, others were still in a slow growth stage.③China's CI will reach 450 kg per capita, 9 kg per capita and 20 kg per capita, while RD will reach 220 kg per capita, 3 kg per capita, 5 kg per capita in 2030.RD and CI ratio will be 49%, 33% and 25% respectively.The above comparison shows that China's future social scrap metal recycling potential will be great, which can greatly ease the pressure on the security guarantee of bulk metal, if government uses effective policy guidance to speed up the recycling.关键词
金属矿产/消费强度/回收潜力/预测Key words
metal mineral/consumption intensity/recycling potential/forecast分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李新,崔献丹,梁亚楠,王敏晰,代涛,柳群义..中国金属矿产的消费强度与回收潜力分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):53-59,7.基金项目
成都理工大学优秀科研团队项目(批准号:KYTD201406) （批准号:KYTD201406）
四川省社会科学高水平研究团队"资源环境战略"(批准号:SCKT201506) （批准号:SCKT201506）
四川矿产资源研究中心开放基金项目(批准号:SCKCZY-2016YB01) （批准号:SCKCZY-2016YB01）
四川省社科规划基地项目"四川省矿产资源型城市可持续发展的关键问题研究"(批准号:SC16E006) （批准号:SC16E006）
中国地质调查局地质调查项目"中国铁铜铝等资源循环调查评价"(批准号:121201103000150015). （批准号:121201103000150015）
