中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(7)：60-71,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170415
"一带一路"国家天然气投资绩效评价及其改进路径
Evaluation and improvement of natural gas investment performance in the Belt and Road countries
摘要
Abstract
In this paper, the Super-Efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis method (SE-DEA) was employed to construct a linear programming model for natural gas investment performance based on factors including resource status, political factors, economic technology, social conditions, market system and international cooperation.At the meantime, using the mean value of natural gas investment from 2003 to 2013 to cluster countries along the Belt and Road, and combined with scale of returns and the dual price analysis of input factors, the paper puts forward the improvement path of natural gas investment performance in the target countries.The results show that: ① China's natural gas investment in Central Asia and North Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia are generally in the middle or high efficiency zones;however, target countries in the CIS, Middle East Europe and West Asia and North Africa are in low efficiency areas.② The scale of returns in high-efficient countries, since 2012, has been in constant stage, therefore the key factors influencing investment performance are technical level of those countries and their economic dependence on natural gas trade degree.③ Most of countries in mid-efficient zones are in the stage of scale increasing returns.The reserves, the condition of human geography and oil and gas cooperation with China have become key factors that influence the performance of investment since 2013.④ Inefficient countries are seeing increasing return stage driven by the expansion of investment scale.The national economic dependence on natural gas trade level and technical level are key factors that affect the performance of inefficient zone investment.In countries of inefficient area of central Asia, another key factor influences the performance of investment is resource status.The political factor is the key factor for the Middle East Europe and the CIS countries.Meanwhile, social condition is the factor influences Southeast Asia and South Asia natural gas investment, which means that present investment strategy should be adjusted to different investment circumstances if China wants to see improvement in investment performance of natural gas along the Belt and Road.For efficient area and inefficient area of central Asia, China needs to reinforce the communication with the local governments, aiming at achieving 'Barter technology for gas'.In mid-efficient zone, inefficient area of Middle East Europe and CIS countries, cooperation with target countries' oil and gas enterprises can be achieved to reduce the risk.The corporation between China and Southeast Asia or South Asia countries which are inefficient zones can be long-term gas trade contracts.关键词
"一带一路"战略/天然气投资绩效/SE-DEA模型/影子价格Key words
the Belt and Road/natural gas investment performance/SE-DEA model/dual price分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
周娜,吴巧生,王然,孙奇.."一带一路"国家天然气投资绩效评价及其改进路径[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):60-71,12.基金项目
国家社科基金重点项目"页岩气和煤层气开发利用的能源安全效益、环境效益及其他社会效益评价"(批准号:13AZD078). （批准号:13AZD078）
