草业学报2017，Vol.26Issue(7)：1-10,10.DOI:10.11686/cyxb2016356
基于MaxEnt模型和不同气候变化情景的单叶蔓荆潜在地理分布预测
Prediction of geographical distribution of Vitex trifolia var.simplicifolia under climate change based on the MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
Vitex trifolia var.simplicifolia (Viticis fructus) is not only valuable as a medicinal plant,but also ecologically important.It can function as a wind break,and it stabilizes sand and soil,and it conserves water.Predicting the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of V.trifolia var.simplicifolia may provide a scientific basis and reference for the sustainable use of this important plant.Using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model,we simulated the geographical distribution of V.trifolia under the current climatic conditions in China based on species presence data at 126 locations and data for 22 environmental factors.Then,we used the model to predict the future distributions of V.trifolia in two periods (2050s and 2070s) under four different climate change scenarios.The results showed that the MaxEnt model was highly accurate (mean area under ROC curve,0.988).The main climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of V.trifolia were altitude,mean diurnal air temperature range,precipitation in the coldest quarter,and precipitation in the driest month.The model simulations indicated that,under the four scenarios,V.trifolia will widen its distribution because of a rapid increase in suitable habitat areas and a slow increase in marginally suitable habitat areas.During the period of 2041-2060,the potential distribution area of suitable habitat would increase from the current ratio of 5.03％ to 15.88％,17.00％,17.59％,and 23.11％ under scenarios 1-4,respectively.The potential distribution area of marginally suitable habitat would increase from the current ratio of 8.86％ to 11.09％,10.31％,11.53％,and 12.96％ under scenarios 1-4,respectively.During the period of 2061-2080,the potential distribution area of suitable habitat would increase to 21.22％,22.21％,24.57％,and 30.66％ under scenarios 1-4,respectively,and the potential distribution area of marginally suitable habitat would increase to 11.85％,12.07％,13.99％,and 14.66％ under scenarios 1-4,respectively.In terms of the spatial distribution of the potential habitat area of V.trifolia,both the distributional range and the center of distribution of suitable and marginally suitable habitat areas would shift from coastal areas to inland.The distribution of suitable habitat area in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces would increase rapidly.Especially in Sichuan Province,where there is only a small percentage of marginally suitable habitat area currently,the potential marginally suitable habitat area would increase,and the suitable habitat area would appear and increase rapidly under climate change.关键词
单叶蔓荆/气候变化/MaxEnt模型/潜在地理分布Key words
Vitex trifolia var.simplicifolia/climatic change/MaxEnt model/potential geographic distribution引用本文复制引用
王亚领,李浩,杨旋,郭彦龙,李维德..基于MaxEnt模型和不同气候变化情景的单叶蔓荆潜在地理分布预测[J].草业学报,2017,26(7):1-10,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41571016)资助. （41571016）
