寄生虫与医学昆虫学报2017，Vol.24Issue(2)：91-102,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-0507.2017.02.005
中国内地寨卡病毒病输入传播风险评估研究
RISK ASSESSMENT OF ZIKA VIRUS DISEASE INVASION ANDTRANSMISSION IN MAINLAND CHINA
摘要
Abstract
The imported and transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in China,since the global epidemic of Zika in 2016.This work predicted the imported risk of Zika virus(ZIKV) in mainland China by assessing index of imported risk of ZIKV using reported autochthonous Zika cases in epidemic focus,airline-passenger flow information and location information of land transportation ports in Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces and the study predicted the probable distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae.albopictus in mainland China using cological niche models (ENMs),based on the database of reported locations of Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus.Then we analyzed the autochthonous transmission risk of ZIKV in mainland China by calculating the autochthonous transmission risk index using the probability of distribution of Ae.aegypti or Ae.albopictus,imported risk index,population density and suitable temperature zones.Our study showed that Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou had high imported risk of ZIKV by international flights,and Dehong,Lincang and Xishuangbanna in Yunnan,Fangchenggang and Beihai in Guangxi had high imported risk of ZIKV through land transportation ports.So that Inspection and Quarantine Organizations should strengthen the border quarantine and detect Zika cases promptly.High risk of autochthonous transmission of ZIKV might occur in February and middle risk in November in Sanya,there was high risk in Haikou and middle risk in Zhanjiang in August.and there was middle risk in Dehong and Lincang and low risk in other border cities in Yunnan during March to November.Zika cases and surveillance of Aedes mosquitos should be reinforced monitoring,prevention and control measures should been taken rapidly once Zika patients are diagnosed.关键词
寨卡病毒病/埃及伊蚊/白纹伊蚊/传播/风险评估Key words
Zika virus disease/Aedes aegypti/Aedes albopictus/Transmission/Risk assessment引用本文复制引用
张文慧,赵国平,姚宏武,樊正伟,肖丹,李新楼,方立群..中国内地寨卡病毒病输入传播风险评估研究[J].寄生虫与医学昆虫学报,2017,24(2):91-102,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金创新研究团队项目(81621005) （81621005）
国家基础性工作专项重点项目(2013FY114600) （2013FY114600）
国家科技重大/重点项目(AWS15J006) （AWS15J006）
