气象科学2017，Vol.37Issue(3)：317-328,12.DOI:10.3969/2017jms.0010
中国雨日数的气候特征及趋势变化
The climatic characteristics and trends of rainy days over China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily observed rainfall dataset of 2 425 stations during 1961-2013 and the relevant NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the spatial and temporal distribution features,trend variation features and relevant background circulation of each grade rainy days in China are investigated with methods of calculating climatic field,rainy day probability,propensity score,M-K mutation test.Results show that:(1) the maximum value of total annual rainy days occurs in eastern Sichuan,Guizhou province,South China and southwestern Yunnan province,and the main proportion is light rainy days;the maxi mum values of moderate and heavy rain days are over southeastern China and southwestern Yunnan;the maximum value centers of more than 50 mm rainfall days are over coastal region of South China and the juncture among Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Fujian province.(2) There are three annual total rainy days probability distribution categories:gently,unimodal and bimodal type.Besides Yunnan province,all areas in South China are gently type;East Xizang,West Sichuan,southern areas of shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia,East Qinghai are all bimodal type,and other areas in China are unimodal type.(3) Light rainy day number mutations over China monsoon region occurred in the end of 1970s to the early 1980s,which shows a significant reducing trend from then on.In Southeast China,it decreases in all four seasons,while in Yunnan and Shanghai it decreases most obviously in autumn and winter.The light rainy days increases significantly in arid and semi-arid region.(4) The total annual moderate rainy days significantly reduced over the eastern part of Southwest China around 2000,which is most obvious in autumn,while in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong,it presents increasing trend.The heavy rainy days decreased in eastern part of Southwest China in autumn and in Yunnan province in summer after 2003,while the moderate or above rainy days increased significantly over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer and winter.(5) The high value of rainy day number over East Sichuan,Guizhou province and the Southern Yangtze River regions was associated with the stationary front and the convergence of cold air and warm air over Tibet Plateau.关键词
雨日数/气候特征/趋势变化/雨日概率/静止锋Key words
Rainy days/Climatic characteristics/Trend variation/Probability of rainy day/Stationary front分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
汪卫平,杨修群,张祖强,吴战平..中国雨日数的气候特征及趋势变化[J].气象科学,2017,37(3):317-328,12.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划)项目(2013CB430200) （973 计划）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41330420,41621005) （41330420,41621005）
黔气科合KF[2017] 14号 （）
