中国电机工程学报2017，Vol.37Issue(15)：4296-4303,8.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.160963
双重不确定环境下的微网优化运行调度风险分析研究
Risk Analysis of Microgrid Optimal Operation Scheduling Under Double Uncertainty Environment
摘要
Abstract
Compared with the traditional power grid,the uncertain factors of microgrid with high permeability of new energies are the keys of limiting microgrid development.To overcome the conservative problem of traditional optimal operation scheduling results considering single uncertainty,this paper deeply studied the uncertain factors of microgrid and started from the uncertainty theory.A chance constrained fuzzy random programming model under double uncertainty environment was constructed while processing the wind power output as fuzzy random variable and the photovoltaic power output as fuzzy variable.To describe the complex double uncertainty under this environment in a more flexible and intuitive way,a chance measure function was used to measure the chance of fuzzy random events and a hybrid intelligent algorithm combining fuzzy random simulation technology and genetic algorithm was used on the solution of chance constrained fuzzy random programming model.Aiming at the optimal solution under different confidence level,the single economic analysis in the conventional optimization problem was further extended to a risk analysis.The analysis results show that along with the lower confidence level and the less operation costs,the control on new energy power generation decreases which leads to an increasing risk.A typical microgrid consisting of wind turbine,photovoltaic,storage battery,fuel cell and micro turbine was selected as a calculation and analysis example.The results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.关键词
微网/优化运行调度/风险分析/不确定理论/机会约束模糊随机规划模型/模糊随机模拟Key words
microgrid/optimal operation scheduling/risk analysis/uncertainty theory/chance constrained fuzzy random programming model/fuzzy random simulation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李鹏,王雪莹,韩鹏飞..双重不确定环境下的微网优化运行调度风险分析研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(15):4296-4303,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51577068) （51577068）
国家863高技术基金项目(2015AA050104).Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51577068) （2015AA050104）
The National High Technology Research and Development of China 863 Program (2015AA050104). （2015AA050104）
