中国电机工程学报2017，Vol.37Issue(15)：4379-4387,9.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.161245
用于含风电场的电力系统概率潮流计算的高斯混合模型
Gaussian Mixture Model for Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation of System Integrated Wind Farm
摘要
Abstract
Large-scale integration of wind power into grid significantly increased the power system uncertainty,which brings more challenges to the security and stability of power system operation.Therefore the research on probabilistic power flow is very important for system uncertainly analysis.A Gaussian mixture model was proposed to fit the probability density distribution of short-term wind power prediction error.This model can deal with the multimodal and asymmetric probability distribution characteristics of short-term wind power prediction error.Then,the improved weighted least square method was used to estimate the probability density distribution of state variables for each random combination result of Gaussian components.Finally,the weight for each probability density distribution of state variables was the product of the weights for Gaussian components in the corresponding combination.The probabilistic power flow of power system was acquired by summing up all the probability density distributions of state variables with their weights.The probabilistic power flow calculation method combining the Gaussian mixture model with the improved weighted least square method,modeling the probability distribution characteristics remarkably and avoiding the complicated iterative optimization process in traditional methods,can greatly simplify the process of power system probabilistic power flow calculation.The simulation results verified the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed approach based on the modified IEEE 14-bus system.关键词
风电并网/概率潮流计算/高斯混合模型/改进加权最小二乘法Key words
wind power integration/probabilistic power flow calculation/Gaussian mixture model/improved weighted least square分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
叶林,张亚丽,巨云涛,宋旭日,郎燕生,李强..用于含风电场的电力系统概率潮流计算的高斯混合模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(15):4379-4387,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51477174) （51477174）
国家电网公司科技项目(DZB51201503568) （DZB51201503568）
国家自然科学基金国际合作交流项目(51711530227).Project Supported by National Science Foundation of China (51477174) （51711530227）
Science and Technology Project of SGCC (DZB51201503568) （DZB51201503568）
International Cooperation and Exchange Project of the National Science Foundation of China (51711530227). （51711530227）
