中国水利水电科学研究院学报2017，Vol.15Issue(3)：161-169,9.DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.2017.03.001
基于模糊聚类预报与序贯决策的水资源开发利用总量动态管理模式
Dynamical management for total amount control of water resources utilization based on fuzzy cluster analysis and sequential decision
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the adaptive management for total amount control red line of water resources utilization in different water frequency year,this paper proposes a rolling modified Sequential Decision method which combines the clustering forecast of runoff with the water use constraint.The new method is based on the fuzzy clustering theory,hydrological forecasting and optimization in dynamic decision-making system.By establishing the month runoff frequency forecast model while at the same time considering the actual water consumption,it can make dynamic decision for monthly water quota under "forecast-review" bidirectional constraints.The result shows that the method can be used to make pre-judgment of monthly inflow,set the monthly water use quota,and realize the flexible management for monthly water use.关键词
序贯决策/模糊聚类z/逐月用水指标/不同来水频率Key words
Sequential Decision/Fuzzy Cluster Analysis/monthly water use quota/different water frequencies分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
严子奇,王浩,桑学锋,褚俊英,刘扬..基于模糊聚类预报与序贯决策的水资源开发利用总量动态管理模式[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2017,15(3):161-169,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51309248) （51309248）
广西水利科技项目(201313,201506) （201313,201506）
中国水科院科研专项(ZJ1224) （ZJ1224）
云南水利科技项目(YSZD-2014-001,YNWRM-2012-01) （YSZD-2014-001,YNWRM-2012-01）
江西水利科技项目(KT201501,KT201508,KT201411) （KT201501,KT201508,KT201411）
