电测与仪表2017，Vol.54Issue(15)：45-49,5.
城市电网总量负荷年最大值的双向预测方法
The bi-directional prediction method for the annual maximum of total load in urban network
摘要
Abstract
The total load forecasting of urban power network is the fundamental work of urban power network planning.In order to fully tap and use more information of load historical data, a bi-directional prediction method for the annual maximum of total load in urban network is proposed.The method analyzes the correlation of power load and power consumption based on historical data, and establishes the model of load-electricity ratio, hereby obtains the power load maximum of each month by using power consumption data, and then, forecasts the total load maximum of the objective years on the basis of these maximum from horizontal and vertical directions by using linear regression, exponential smoothing and gray theory, it serves the weighted average value of the six predicted value as the final predicted results.Example analysis shows that the method is correct and effective.关键词
城市电网/负荷预测/双向预测/加权平均Key words
urban power network/load forecasting/bi-directional prediction/weighted average分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李科,何茜,王璟,肖白,刘桐彤,房龙江..城市电网总量负荷年最大值的双向预测方法[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(15):45-49,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177009) （51177009）
吉林省自然科学基金资助项目(20140101079JC) （20140101079JC）
国网河南电力公司科技资助项目(5217L014000R) （5217L014000R）
