运筹与管理2017，Vol.26Issue(7)：138-146,9.DOI:10.12005/orms.2017.0172
基于故障树分析的堰塞湖溃坝概率估计方法
A FTA-Based Method for Estimating the Failure Probability of Barrier Lake Dam
摘要
Abstract
A key problem with eliminating the damage of barrier lake is how to estimate the failure probability of barrier lake dam given that different response actions are carried out.It is an important research topic that deserves more attention.This paper proposes a method based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)for estimating the failure probability of barrier lake dam.First,by analyzing the practical backgrounds of eliminating the damages of barrier lakes,the basic framework of the fault tree for failures of barrier lake dams is constructed based on FTA.Then,according to the knowledge of related academic fields,the analysis of historical cases,the subjective judgments of experts and the fusion of the subjective judgments of multiple experts,and the probabilities of each basic event in the fault tree can be estimated with respect to different time periods and different response actions.Furthermore,according to the constructed fault tree and the probabilities of basic events,an approach is proposed for estimating the failure probabilities of the barrier lake dam in different time periods.Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.关键词
堰塞湖排险/溃坝概率估计/故障树分析(FTA)Key words
eliminating the damage of barrier lake/estimating the failure probability of dam/fault tree analysis(FTA)分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘洋,樊治平,尤天慧,王晓荣..基于故障树分析的堰塞湖溃坝概率估计方法[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(7):138-146,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71371002,71571039,71271049) （71371002,71571039,71271049）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(N140607001) （N140607001）
