应用生态学报2017，Vol.28Issue(8)：2499-2508,10.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201708.017
西南地区红花龙胆分布格局模拟与气候变化影响评价
Distribution simulation of Gentiana rhodantha in Southwest China and assessment of climate change impact
摘要
Abstract
Based on 230 presence point records and 33 climatic variables,the potential distribution of Gentiana rhodantha during the Mid Holocene (about 6000 years ago),current (1950-2000)and future (2050s and 2070s) was simulated using the MaxEnt model.The main climatic factors affecting Gentiana rhodantha distribution were screened by multivariate statistical analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis to investigate the sensitivity of different distribution areas to climate change.The areas under the curve indexes (AUC) of training data and test data were 0.942 and 0.849,respectively,which indicated the prediction accuracy was high.Five climatic factors,namely,the monthly average maximum temperature in July,the minimum temperature in June,July and August,and isothermality,showed most contribution to the MaxEnt model (cumulatively 59.9％).Area of suitable habitats retreated first and then expanded with climate change in the future.Up to 2070s,the total area of suitable habitats would decrease by 15.0％ under RCP 8.5 compared with the current distribution,but areas of suitable habitats and highly suitable habitats in Yunnan would increase by 32.8％ and 32.7％,respectively.The warm and moist climate was suitable for G.rhodantha growth.Lower-altitude regions were more sensitive to climate change,which resulted in the obvious reduction of suitable habitat areas.The areas of suitable habitats in high altitude region,however,would increase with the improvement of temperature and precipitation condition.With the change of global climate,the main distribution area of G.rhodantha would be projected to migrate westward and expand to higher elevations.关键词
红花龙胆/气候变化/物种分布模型/西南地区/地理分布格局Key words
Gentiana rhodantha/climate change/species distribution models/Southwest China/geographic distribution引用本文复制引用
沈涛,张霁,申仕康,赵艳丽,王元忠..西南地区红花龙胆分布格局模拟与气候变化影响评价[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(8):2499-2508,10.基金项目
本文由国家自然科学基金项目(81660638,81260608)和云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2015C080Y)资助 This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81660638,81260608) and the Science Foundation of Yunnan Educational Committee (2015C080Y). （81660638,81260608）
