化工进展2017，Vol.36Issue(9)：3231-3236,6.DOI:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2016-1823
火灾环境液化石油气卧罐动态可靠性分析
Dynamic reliability of horizontal LPG tank exposed to fire
摘要
Abstract
The liquefied hydrocarbon pressure vessel exposed to heat radiation from fire is extremely dangerous,which may incur the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion(BLEVE)of disaster domino effect. In this paper,based on the established two-node lumped temperature model(LTM), the dynamic reliability of the horizontal LPG tank exposed to fire was researched by applying stochastic diffusion process(SDP)and first passage failure(FPF)theories to LTM. Firstly,the LTM was converted to a two-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation(SDE)to obtain the expressions of drift and diffusion coefficient. Then,according to FPF,a conditional dynamic reliability function was defined and the Kolmogorov backward equation(KBE)that the defined function satisfied was derived. Finally,the dynamic reliability was obtained by solving the KBE using the finite difference method(FDM)with some reasonable boundary conditions. Being different from the static reliability method,the dynamic one could describe the damage probability in whole timeline so as to provide a more reliable and accurate probability result for quantitative risk assessment(QRA) of domino effect.关键词
沸腾液体扩展蒸汽云爆炸/多米诺效应/火灾/液化石油气/动态可靠性/首次穿越失效/后向柯尔莫哥洛夫方程Key words
BLEVE/domino effect/fire/LPG/dynamic reliability/first passage failure/KBE分类
化学化工引用本文复制引用
贾梅生,陈国华..火灾环境液化石油气卧罐动态可靠性分析[J].化工进展,2017,36(9):3231-3236,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(21576102)及国家重点研究开发计划(2016YFC0801500)项目. （21576102）
