水利学报2017，Vol.48Issue(7)：808-815,8.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160850
洪水避难分析系统的研究开发及其应用
Development and application of flood disaster evacuation analysis system
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid development of social economy,the increasing density of residents and assets in the flood prone areas has enlarged the risk of flooding.In the context of global warming,extreme storms and typhoons bring greater threats to the residents and assets in flood prone areas.How to organize the residents to evacuate more effectively and orderly is an important means to reduce the casualties and damages.Taking a multi-disciplinary approach including hydrology,hydraulics,disaster prevention and geographic information science,the flood risk is analyzed based on flood simulation to identify the population and its spatial distribution in the flooded areas.The optimal matching method is developed for planning placement shelters.In addition,the optimal evacuation routes analysis model and traffic congestion analysis model is developed.These models are integrated on a GIS based platform to create a comprehensive simulation system which can perform flood evacuation analysis and real-time simulation.The Jingjiang flood diversion area is taken as a pilot study to develop a flood scenario simulation model and the real flood event of 1954 is used to simulate the process of flood diversion in this area.According the result of flood simulation,there are three hazard areas in Jingjiang flood diversion area,i.e.dangerous hard disaster area,deep water hard disaster area and flood light disaster area.The flood diversion scenario of 1954 is used to simulate and analyze the disaster evacuation based on the 2014 emergency response plan of Jingjiang flood diversion area.An optimized program of evacuation in batches is proposed base on the characters of simulated flood routing.The result shows that the models,methods and related system are useful,which can provide a solution for analyzing and optimizing the evacuation plan in flood diversion area.关键词
洪水模拟/避难分析/荆江分洪区Key words
flood simulation/evacuation analysis/Jingjiang flood diversion area分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
丁志雄,李娜,王静,曹大岭..洪水避难分析系统的研究开发及其应用[J].水利学报,2017,48(7):808-815,8.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(1261430110037) （1261430110037）
中国水利水电科学研究院重点专项(JZ0145B042017) （JZ0145B042017）
