大庆石油地质与开发2017，Vol.36Issue(4)：47-51,5.DOI:10.19597/J.ISSN.1000-3754.201703007
低渗透油藏油井递减后产量递减不确定性评价方法
EVALUATING METHOD OF THE PRODUCTION DECLINE UNCERTAINTY FOR LOW PERMEABILITY OIL RESERVOIRS
摘要
Abstract
In the light of the problem of the production decline assessment for low permeability oil reservoirs,the uncertainty analyzing method of the decline was established,and moreover the influences of the parameter uncertainty on the cumulative production were clarified.With the help of the analyses of the production data of a certain low-permeability oil reservoir,the probability distribution functions of the initial production,decline exponent and decline rate were determined,considering the effects of the reservoir heterogeneity,Monte Carlo method was used to predict the changes of the oil well production,at the same time,the uncertainty analyses of the main control factors were conducted.The achievements show that the production decline conditions under different probabilities can be predicted through the uncertainty decline method,and the evaluation results of P10,P50 and P90 of the wells can be obtained,as a result,the changes of the reservoir production are more accurate comparing with the traditional methods;the uncertainty ranges of the decline exponent and decline rate have a great effects on the predictedprecision of the the cumulative production,while they have little effects on the initial production.The newly-establisheduncertainty forecasting method of the production declinecan improve the reliability inthe production assessment for low-permeability oil reservoirs and provide the references for optimizing the development effects of the low-permeability oil reservoirs.关键词
递减曲线/蒙特卡洛/不确定性分析/产量评估Key words
decline curve/Monte Carlo/uncertainty analysis/production evaluation分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
丁冠阳,黄世军,张雪娇..低渗透油藏油井递减后产量递减不确定性评价方法[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2017,36(4):47-51,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“页岩储层纳孔微缝耦合系统全息表征方法研究”(41672132). （41672132）
