极地研究2017，Vol.29Issue(3)：399-413,15.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.2017.3.399
可服务于北极航道的海冰与气象预报信息综合分析
SEA ICE AND WEATHER FORECASTING INFORMATION FOR ARCTIC SEA ROUTES: A SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS
摘要
Abstract
The reduction in the extent of summer sea ice, associated with global climate change, offers the possi-bility of new sea routes through the Arctic Ocean. Improving the skill of forecasting sea ice and weather would strongly support Arctic navigation. Collecting international online information (including observa-tional data, forecast products, and historical analysis) of the high Arctic, and analyzing the characteristics of sea ice extent and weather forecast information, could support the development of operational Arctic fore-casting by China. By comparing the information supplied by seven Arctic countries, three non-Arctic coun-tries, and three international information suppliers, it was found that sea ice and meteorological forecasting capabilities have improved considerably, although further improvements could be made. For example, ob-servational data have not been applied fully, the prediction ability in the Central Arctic remains weak, shar-ing of forecast information is insufficient, and comparison is needed when using online information. Fur-thermore, the development of new information technologies is urgently required. To provide improved and reliable protection in relation to sea ice and weather for Chinese Arctic expeditions and shipping activities, it is strongly suggested that investment in Arctic scientific expeditions be increased, and that international co-operation be sought for the development of forecasting technologies in relation to areas affected by Arctic sea ice.关键词
海冰预报/气象预报/观测/数据/北极Key words
sea ice forecast/weather forecast/observation/data/Arctic引用本文复制引用
姜珊,杨清华,梁颖祺,滕骏华,张林..可服务于北极航道的海冰与气象预报信息综合分析[J].极地研究,2017,29(3):399-413,15.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC1402705,2016YFC1402707)和中国极地科学战略研究青年基金(20140402)资助 （2016YFC1402705,2016YFC1402707）
