气象2017，Vol.43Issue(7)：831-844,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.07.007
淮河流域2016年汛期洪水预报试验
Test on Flood Forecasts for Huaihe River in the 2016 Flood Season
摘要
Abstract
Rainfall runoff simulation and flood forecasting of large river basins is a complex prediction problem.An integrated hydro-meteorological forecast model is developed for flood forecast test of complex river basins.Grid-based quantitative precipitation forecast products of National Meteorological Centre are applied as precipitation of lead-time period,and the Xin'anjiang hydrological model is used for rainfall-runoff process simulation.The Muskingum-Cunge model,based on diffusion,columbar storage and wedge storage theory,is introduced for channel water-level and discharge forecasting.For the test case of the upper reaches of the Lutaizi Station of the Huaihe River in flood season of 2016,the developed hydro-meteorological forecast model of complex river basins is applied in flood forecast test.The results show that the developed model can perform well.Compared with no considering the precipitation in lead-time period,the flood forecast lead time can be increased obviously.The developed model has certain reference significance for flood forecasting over similar basins.关键词
洪水预报试验/格点化定量降水预报/新安江模型/Muskingum-Cunge/水位流量预报/淮河流域Key words
flood forecast test/grid-based quantitative precipitation forecasting/Xin'anjiang model/Muskingum-Cunge/water level and discharge forecast/Huaihe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
包红军,曹勇,张珂,魏丽,李致家,宗志平,谌芸,狄靖月,栾承梅,刘开磊..淮河流域2016年汛期洪水预报试验[J].气象,2017,43(7):831-844,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51509043)、国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402702、2016YFC0402701和2016YFC0402705)、中国气象局首批青年英才计划“中小河流洪水气象预警关键技术研究”(2014-2017)、国家气象中心水文气象预报团队项目、中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)06]和中国气象局气象预报预测业务与科研结合专项(CMAHX20160601)共同资助 （51509043）
