气象2017，Vol.43Issue(7)：856-862,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.07.009
我国近海洋面10m风速集合预报客观订正方法
Objective Correction Method of Ensemble Forecast of 10 m Winds on Chinese Offshore
摘要
Abstract
An objective correction method is established by making use of ensemble forecast of 10 m wind speed from 2013 to 2015 and wind speed observation from 88 representative stations.The accuracy and stability of the mode are equal or greater than the average values.Thus fully considering the prediction probability of historical data and collecting the distribution of each member of ensemble forecasts could improve the correction effect.Small error and TS score are significantly improved by correction.Specifically,TS score of 8-9 magnitude of wind speed forecast within 72-120 h lead time increases from 0.04 to 0.44,which can effectively promote the forecasting ability of medium and long-term timeliness and high volume of wind speed.The corrected forecasts could bring good effectiveness for cold air and typhoon weather in the offshore areas of China.关键词
集合预报/10m风速/众数/风速订正Key words
ensemble forcast/10 m winds/mode/wind speed correction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡海川,黄彬,魏晓琳..我国近海洋面10m风速集合预报客观订正方法[J].气象,2017,43(7):856-862,7.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206001)和环渤海区域科技协同创新基金(QYXM2016)共同资助 （气象）
