生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(1)：215-225,11.DOI:10.5846/stxb201607261524
黄河三角洲潮间带不同类型湿地景观格局变化与趋势预测
Variation and prediction of different marsh landscapes in intertidal zone of the Yellow River Delta
摘要
Abstract
Seven Landsat TM images during 1979-2013,combined with a field survey,were used to establish a database of tidal marshes in the Yellow River Delta,to determine the characteristics of landscape pattern in tidal marshes and the impacts of natural and human factors thereon.The trends of landscape patterns in tidal marshes in the future 20 years were also forecast using a Markov model.Results showed that the tidal marsh areas generally decreased from 1050.28 to 575.39 km2 with a decrement rate of 45.22％ from 1979 to 2010,and increased to 596.17 km2 during 2010 to 2013,with an increment rate of 0.36％.The main landscape pattern showed obvious zonal distribution characteristics from the land to sea,and the landscape types in a seaward direction were Phragmites australis marsh,Suaeda salsa-Tamarix chinensis-P.australis marsh,and S.salsa marsh and mudflat,respectively.In general,the areas of P.australis marsh decreased significantly,with a decrement rate of 79.68％,whereas those of salt-cultural-pond (SP) and resident district (RD)continued increasing during 1979-2013,and those of other landscape patterns showed varied fluctuations,decreasingoverall.In the next 20 years,the areas of tidal marshes are predicted to show a decreasing trend,with a decrement rate of 6.60％.Particularly,the areas of P.australis marsh are predicted to decrease continuously and those of the SP and RD to increase continuously,whereas those of the other landscapes are predicted to show slight fluctuations.In this study,we found that,although the dual function of natural and human driving forces determined the dynamics of landscape patterns of tidal marshes during 1979-2013,the annual sediment load (x1),regional GDP (x2),and output of aquatic products (x3) were more critical factors affecting the landscape patterns (y) of tidal marshes (y =733.192 + 35.317 x1-0.005 x2-4.085 x3,p =0.0001 ＜ 0.05),which could explain 76.7％ of the variations in tidal marshes over the past 30 years.关键词
景观格局/驱动力/潮间带湿地/Markov预测/黄河三角洲Key words
landscape pattern/driving force/tidal marsh/markov model/Yellow River Delta引用本文复制引用
孙万龙,孙志高,田莉萍,胡星云..黄河三角洲潮间带不同类型湿地景观格局变化与趋势预测[J].生态学报,2017,37(1):215-225,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41371104) （41371104）
福建省“闽江学者奖励计划”资助项目 （）
