生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(12)：4149-4158,10.DOI:10.5846/stxb201507311611
2000-2010年中国大陆地区建设用地扩张的驱动力分析
Driving forces of built-up land expansion in China from 2000 to 2010
摘要
Abstract
China experienced rapid socioeconomic development and built-up land expansion during 2000-2010.Identifying key driving forces of built-up land expansion is essential for policy-makers to develop effective policies for sustainable land management.In this study,the change in the expansion of built-up land was used as the dependent variable,and 14 geographic,economic,demographic,and policy-related explanatory variables were chosen.Three models,including the ordinary least squares linear regression model,spatial lag model,and spatial error model were used to analyze the driving forces of built-up land expansion.The results showed that the spatial distribution of built-up land expansion was not random,but exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelations,which would reduce the stability and accuracy of conventional ordinary least squares linear regression models and their explanatory power to the degree that they would not reflect reality.Comparing the goodness-of-fit for the three regression models,the spatial lag model proved to be more robust.The regression results of the spatial lag model indicated that built-up land expansion was widely influenced by various geographic,economic,demographic,and policy factors.The rapid development of secondary industry,massive in-migration floating populations,growth of fixed asset investments,and foreign direct investments,together with investment-driven land urbanization and infrastructure development were considered the primary driving forces of built-up land expansion in China from 2000 to 2010.Conversely,the development of tertiary industry,importation growth,and the establishment of natural protected areas helped to control construction land expansion.Moreover,natural factors,such as terrain slope and elevation influenced on built-up land expansion.Other things being equal,built-up land expansion occurred more frequently where the average elevation was high,because of several balanced regional development strategies,such as the Great Western Development Strategy,the Northeast China Revitalization Strategy,and the Rise of Central China Plan in the high altitude regions.In addition,increasing average slope had a significant negative (inhibiting) effect on built-up land expansion.关键词
建设用地/扩张/社会经济发展/驱动力/空间回归模型Key words
built-up land/expansion/socio-economic development/driving forces/spatial regression models引用本文复制引用
黄宝荣,张慧智,宋敦江,马永欢..2000-2010年中国大陆地区建设用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(12):4149-4158,10.基金项目
全国生态环境十年(2000-2010年)变化遥感调查与评估项目(STSN-04) （2000-2010年）
国家自然科学基金(40901300) （40901300）
中国科学院“一三五”规划重大任务(Y201131Z05) （Y201131Z05）
