水资源与水工程学报2017，Vol.28Issue(4)：45-49,57,6.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.04.08
基于系统动力学的龙口市水资源供需问题研究
Study on water supply and demand of Longkou city based on system dynamics
摘要
Abstract
In order to study the water supply and demand in Longkou City, a coastal developed city in Shandong province, the System Dynamics (SD) approach is applied to develop a SD model of water supply and demand for the area.Four development scenarios has been designed to simulate the water demands of Longkou from 2009 to 2030.Total water demand, water deficit, industrial GDP, tertiary industrial GDP and COD emission were selected as the indexes to evaluate the water supply and demand situation of Longkou.The results show that the water resources of Longkou can not meet the needs of social economic development in the future.No matter what development scenario is adopted, the water deficit problem of Longkou will not be completely solved in future years.Scenario 3 (sustainable development scenario) can effectively alleviate the water deficit problem in Longkou.Based on these results and analysis, the countermeasures were put forward to maintain the sustainable development of social economy and water resources, namely, full use of science and technology, and comprehensively consider of economic development, "exploit new resources and conserve existing resources" of water resources, adjustment of industrial structure, and water environment control and protection.关键词
水资源供需/系统动力学/可持续发展/龙口市Key words
water resource supply and demand/system dynamics/sustainable development/Longkou city分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
秦欢欢,张保祥,孟凡海..基于系统动力学的龙口市水资源供需问题研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(4):45-49,57,6.基金项目
东华理工大学省部共建核资源与环境国家重点实验室培育基地开放基金项目(NRE1516) （NRE1516）
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104) （DHBK2016104）
