摘要
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the value of POSSUM,P-POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM and E-PASS scoring systems in predicting postoperative mortality risk of colorectal cancer patients.Methods The clinical data of 550 patients with colorectal cancer treated in Tianjin Medical University General Hospital from 2010 to 2015 were retrospectively analyzed.The relevant indicators were collected according to Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity(POSSUM),Portsmouth-POSSUM(P-POSSUM),Colorectal POSSUM(Cr-POSSUM)and Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress(E-PASS)scoring systems andresearchneeds.The POSSUM,P-POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM and E-PASS scoring systems were used to predict the postoperative mortality rate of 30 days in patients with colorectal cancer.The predictive value of the scoring system was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and observed to expected ratio(O/E).Results The best cutoff value of POSSUM,P-POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM and E-PASSscoring systems were 54.29%,55.39%,31.68% and 56.31%,respectively.The sensitivity of POSSUM,P-POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM and E-PASS scoring systems were 83.3%,83.3%,33.3% and 83.3%,respectively.The specificity of POSSUM,P-POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM and E-PASSscoring systems were 29.0%,27.9%,1.6% and 27.0%,respectively.The area under ROC curve of POSSUM,P-POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM and E-PASS scoring systems were 0.733〔95%CI(0.500,0.966)〕,0.713〔95%CI(0.479,0.948)〕,0.751〔95%CI(0.570,0.932)〕,and 0.781〔95%CI(0.607,0.955)〕,respectively.The O/E were 0.128,0.414,0.248,0.712,respectively.Conclusion POSSUM,P-POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM and E-PASS scoring systems all have an overestimation of the postoperative mortality of colorectal cancer.E-PASS scoring system has a good consistency in the predicting postoperative mortality and actual mortality.关键词
结直肠肿瘤/死亡率/预测Key words
Colorectal neoplasm/Mortality/Forecasting分类
医药卫生
