长江科学院院报2017，Vol.34Issue(9)：6-13,23,9.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20160519
基于SODA方法的HyMOD模型不确定性分析
Uncertainty Assessment of HyMOD Model Using the Method ofSimultaneous Optimization and Data Assimilation
摘要
Abstract
To improve the treatment of uncertainty in hydrological modeling, a hybrid framework of simultaneous optimization and data assimilation (SODA) was adopt to assess the uncertainty of HyMOD model in this paper, and then was compared with the classical method of the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis-UA (SCEM-UA).The strengths of the SODA can be described as follows: (1) high parameter search efficiency and explorative capabilities;(2) explicit treatment of the various important sources of uncertainty (i.e., input, output, parameter and model structure uncertainties) associated with the application of hydrological models.The results of the SODA applied in the Weihe River Basin demonstrate that in comparison to the performances of SCEM-UA, the SODA could notably improve the streamflow prediction efficiency, and also could derive more accurate prediction interval.The successful application of the SODA is helpful to improving model concepts and understanding of the functioning of hydrological systems.关键词
SODA/HyMOD模型/水文模型不确定性/SCEM-UA/集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)Key words
simultaneous optimization and data assimilation (SODA)/HyMOD/hydrological modeling uncertainty/Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis-University of Arizona(SCEM-UA)/Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF)分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李帅,文小浩,杜涛..基于SODA方法的HyMOD模型不确定性分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(9):6-13,23,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402306-01) （2016YFC0402306-01）
国家自然科学基金项目(51539009) （51539009）
