可再生能源2017，Vol.35Issue(8)：1244-1249,6.
基于自相关分析的风速最佳预报长度度量方法研究
The measurement study of the optimal wind speed predictable length based on autocorrelation analysis
摘要
Abstract
Wind speed prediction is of great significance for wind power integration. The most common prediction method is statistical modeling method based on historical data. However,the study of predictability is scarce in current literature,especially the quantitative measurement of the optimal predictable length in the modeling process. In the present study,the autocorrelation analysis was introduced to analyze the optimal wind speed predictable length. The experimental results based on a large number of measured wind speed data shown that there exists a specific correlation length for the nonlinear wind speed time series. With the increasing of the correlation length, the prediction error gradually decreased and then increased. Thus,the correlation length corresponding to the turning point, which is approximate 4 h, could be recognized as the optimal predictable length. Therefore, autocorrelation analysis could be used to measure the predictability of wind speed,which made a contribution to the further study of wind speed prediction in detail.关键词
风速/可预报性/最佳预报长度/自相关/定量刻画Key words
wind speed/predictability/optimal predictable length/autocorrelation/quantitative measurement分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
万杰,赵鑫宇,刘金福,任国瑞,于达仁,于继来..基于自相关分析的风速最佳预报长度度量方法研究[J].可再生能源,2017,35(8):1244-1249,6.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划("973")资助项目(2012CB215201). （"973"）
