沙漠与绿洲气象2017，Vol.11Issue(4)：95-101,7.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2017.04.009
2016年乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统预报性能客观检验
Objective Verification on DOGRAFS System During 2016
摘要
Abstract
The forecast performance of DOGRAFS v1.0 in 2016 is objectively verified seasonly by MET and further compared with the corresponding period in 2015. It is showed that:(1)the forecasted 2m temperature in each season in 2016 are always lower than the corresponding observations,especially in the noon. Which is best predicted in the summer while worst in the winter. The forecasted 10 m wind are mainly higher than observations,the average error is within 1.0 m/s with no obvious differences in each season.(2)Negative deviations in 500 hPa geopotential height and temperature are mainly showed in 2016,with its 24 h forecast results better than 48 h. The performance of 500 hPa geopotential height is best in summer and worst in autumn,while the temperature is the best in summer and the worst in winter.(3)The 6 h accumulated rainfall judgment has been well predicted in 2016,with its best performance in the summer while the worst in the winter,while better in the latter half of daytime. Its Threat Score decreased with the increase of the column threshold.(4)The variation characteristics of forecast bias of each variable in 2016 is similar with that of 2015,and the forecast performance in 2016 is generally better than 2015.关键词
区域天气数值预报系统/预报性能/客观检验/乌鲁木齐Key words
DOGRAFS/forecast performance/objective verification/Urumqi引用本文复制引用
李曼,杜娟,辛渝,马玉芬,琚陈相..2016年乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统预报性能客观检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(4):95-101,7.基金项目
中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(SQJ2013013)和科技部公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201506009)共同资助. （SQJ2013013）
