电力系统保护与控制2017，Vol.45Issue(15)：118-124,7.DOI:10.7667/PSPC170706
非等间隔GM(1,1)幂模型在变压器故障气体预测中的应用
Application of unequal interval GM (1,1) power model in prediction of dissolved gases for power transformer failure
摘要
Abstract
The safe and reliable operation of transformer plays a crucial role in power system.In case of the oil-immersed transformer,considering the fault characteristics and data monitoring situation of transformer,the solubility of five main fault characteristic gases,which are critical elements in IEC three ratio codes,is predicted to provide the basis for data analysis for the subsequent fault diagnosis.For incomplete and small sample characteristics of gas concentration data acquisition in gas chromatographic analysis of transformer faults,the unequal interval GM (1,1) power prediction models of gas solubility of different gases are established respectively.The coordinated optimization for background value and power exponent based on genetic algorithm is applied.According to the experiment,the proposed method can effectively improve the fitting and prediction accuracy,and the model has no limit to the equidistant coherence of the basic data,with better practicality and adaptability,when compared to some existing in the literature,such as the GM (1,1) model and Verhulst model.关键词
故障预测/非等间隔灰色预测/GM(1,1)幂模型/溶解气体分析(DGA)/电力变压器Key words
failure prediction/unequal interval grey prediction/GM (1,1) power model/dissolved gas analysis (DGA)/power transformer引用本文复制引用
李龙,张迪,汤俊,刘炬,黎灿兵,汪樟垚,何禹清..非等间隔GM(1,1)幂模型在变压器故障气体预测中的应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(15):118-124,7.基金项目
This work is supported by Sino-US International Science and Technology Cooperation Project (No.2016YFE0105300).中美国际科技合作项目(2016YFE0105300) （No.2016YFE0105300）
