水土保持研究2017，Vol.24Issue(6)：292-299,8.
基于BP神经网络的三峡库区重庆段水资源安全评价
Study on Water Resources Security Evaluation of Chongqing Section of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on BP Neural Network
摘要
Abstract
The safety of water resources in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is largely related to the ecological security of the reservoir area.The evaluation on the security utilization of water resources in the Three Gorges Reservoir area facilitates to find out the areas with serious security problems and in turn illustrate the limiting factors that affect the safe use of water resources aiming at providing a scientific basis for the sustainable development and safe utilization of water resources.The water security data of the Three Gorges Reservoir area in 2000-2014 By were chosen,the BP neural network was employed to construct an evaluation mode of safe utilization of water resources.Then,index prediction in combination with an ARIMA model was performed to analyze the temporal and spatial differences of security utilization of water resources in Chongqing section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.(1) In general,the security utilization of water resources in 2014 was situated in a range from less secure to safer.Specially,Yuzhong and Dadukou Districts were the less safe areas;Shapingba and Jiangbei Districts were the basically safe areas;other districts were the safe areas.With the respect to the evaluated subsystem,the security for both the society and the supply-demand loop in the main urban area were the lowest level.Their security levels were extremely unsafe and unsafe,respectively.(2) During the period from 2000 to 2014,the security level of water resources utilization was mainly constraint from the ecological security factors and successively from the safety factors of supply-demand loop;during the period from 2015 to 2020,the security level of water resources utilization was mainly restricted by the safety factors of supplydemand loop,and followed by the ecological security factors.During the period from 2000 to 2020,the utilization level of water resources security presented the general uptrend.关键词
水资源学/水资源安全评价/BP神经网络/随机森林/三峡库区Key words
water resources science/water resources security evaluation/BP neural network/random forests/Three Gorges Reservoir area分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
龚巧灵,官冬杰..基于BP神经网络的三峡库区重庆段水资源安全评价[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(6):292-299,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41201546) （41201546）
国家十三五重点研发计划(2016YFC0400700) （2016YFC0400700）
重庆市自然科学基金(cstc2012jjA20010) （cstc2012jjA20010）
国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAB03B01) （2014BAB03B01）
重庆交通大学研究科研创新(创新基金)项目(CYS16187) （创新基金）
