生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(16)：5273-5284,12.DOI:10.5846/stxb201605190966
新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联——基于VAR模型
Research on the dynamic relationship between water-intensive industrial ecosystem and economic growth in Xinjiang based on VAR model
摘要
Abstract
Xinjiang is coping with the growing concern of increasing level of demand and overuse of water resources caused by 5-tion synchronization.Excessive utilization of water resources strongly influences local economic development and plays a vital role in accelerating ecological degradation.The bottleneck of water resources has become one of the outstanding issues that affects sustainable development and long-term stability of Xinjiang's economy.To address these concerns,the government should strengthen the construction of water infrastructure for improving water use efficiency,and thereby increasing the quantity and frequency of irrigation during an ecological recovery.The VAR model can deal with conditions when some random parameters or variables appear in the modeling formulation of a program.Such random parameters are expressed as probability density functions (PDFs).This implies that an ADF test technique can be employed when the quality of uncertain information is comprehensive.The results can be interpreted under different levels of probabilities (or risks).Previously,a number of stochastic programming methods were developed to support decision making for water resources planning and management.Among them,the VAR model proved effective for problems where analysis of policy scenarios is desired,and the right-hand-side of the coefficients are random with known probability distributions.Therefore,as an extension of previous works,the objective of this study is to present practical research on the long-term equilibrium relationship between Xinjiang's utilization of water resources and economic growth using the VAR model,ADF test,and cointegration,accompanied by the decomposition of generalized impulse response and variance contribution degree.Firstly,the results show the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and total water consumption,industrial water,and agricultural water.Secondly,rapid economic development has a negative impact on water use;yet,industrial and agricultural use of water has a positive impact.Finally,accompanied by the booming economy of Xinjiang,it carded the problem of over-exploitation and over-utilization of water resources.Based on the above factors,this article recommends several suggestions for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the robust development of Xinjiang's economy,including implementing strict policies on conserving the depleting land and water resources,clarifying the amount of water use,strengthening the construction of inter-basin water transfer projects,and preventing excessive consumption,among others.The results obtained will help local decision makers to formulate policies that mandate effective water exploitation and allocation,and thus facilitate the local agricultural sustainability.关键词
产业生态系统/经济增长/动态关系/VAR模型/新疆Key words
water-intensive industrial ecosystem/economic growth/dynamic relationship/VAR model/Xinjiang引用本文复制引用
张振龙,孙慧..新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联——基于VAR模型[J].生态学报,2017,37(16):5273-5284,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71463056,41461114) （71463056,41461114）
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2016D01B054) （2016D01B054）
