中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(8)：1-8,8.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170607
特朗普“去气候化”政策对全球气候治理的影响
The impact of Trump's ‘Undo Climate Policies’ on global climate governance
摘要
Abstract
Trump Administration's withdraw from the Paris Agreement has become the most concerned issue in global climate governance worldwide currently,thus it is necessary and urgent to make prudent and objective judgement and assessment on the future potential development trends and impact of this issue.This article systematically analyzes the series of ‘ undo’ climate policies announced or implemented by the Trump Administration,and its main motivations and possible ways of withdraw from the Paris Agreement.Meanwhile,this article assesses the quantitative effects of these ‘retrogression’ in domestic and international policies on the achievement of US' s national determined contribution and substantial impact on the global climate governance pattern,and accordingly puts forward suggestions on China's response to the new situation changes in global climate regime.The study shows that the ‘ American first’ energy policy of the Trump administration is originated from the economic incentives of revival of manufacturing and increasing infrastructure investment.As the Trump ‘ Undo’ climate policies proceeds,a lot of Obama climate policies may be at risk,US's future greenhouse gas emissions may increase again and it will make US difficult in achieving its nationally determined contribution.Without consideration of highly and moderately vulnerable climate polices,US' s 2025 emissions may roughly 11.0％-14.9％ below 2005 level,which is far from the 26％-28％ nationally determined contribution target.At the same time,the Trump Administration's refusal to continue to fulfill the obligation to provide climate financial support to developing countries,will likely lead to a 117％ increase of GCF debt fund,and further dampen the global confidence in low-carbon investments.The global climate governance 3.0 era without US will show some new and complex features,and will inevitably lead to the continuing widen of mitigation,finance and leadership gaps.The possibility of negative followers cannot be excluded neither and the whole process will likely fall into a low period of cycle.Although the international community is full of expectations for China to take lead in global climate governance in the future,China should remain cautious and determine its strategy in addressing climate through long-term plans.China shall now treat ‘flagging’ as a short term strategy,otherwise should stay sober-minded to the arguments that asking China to play a ‘leading role’.In the future climate negotiations,US may still search for renegotiation with high probability.As a major emitter,the pressure China may face shall never be underestimated,and there is a need to reposition the China-US climate relationship.关键词
全球气候治理/特朗普政府/巴黎协定/国家自主贡献Key words
global climate governance/Trump Administration/Paris Agreement/national determined contribution分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
柴麒敏,傅莎,祁悦,樊星,徐华清..特朗普“去气候化”政策对全球气候治理的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(8):1-8,8.基金项目
中国清洁发展机制基金项目“主要缔约方2015协议下自主贡献的公平性和力度评估”(批准号:2014094),“中美气候变化务实合作技术支撑项目”(批准号:2013019) （批准号:2014094）
科技部改革发展专项研发项目“INDC及其全球盘点机制的影响及对策研究”之“巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究”(批准号:YJ201603). （批准号:YJ201603）
