交通运输工程与信息学报2017，Vol.15Issue(3)：41-48,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4747.2017.03.006
基于ISM-FCM的地铁运营风险因素演化分析与权重计算
Evolution Analysis and Weight Calculation of Metro Operation Risk Factors Based on ISM-FCM
摘要
Abstract
In order to effectively prevent metro operation accidents, 25 risk factors and their relationships are extracted from 134 metro accidents at home and abroad through case analysis and expert interview. By using interpretive structural modeling method to construct interpretive structural diagram, the risk factors and evolution paths of metro operation accidents are analyzed. On this basis, the fuzzy cognitive map method is used to represent and calculate the weights of each factor. Taking collisionwith human as an example, local weights of their risk factors are calculated. Then, combining with other accident types of collision with train, derailment, withdrawal of train, fire & explosion, the global weights can also be given. The results show that the top three risk factors of collision with human are signal failure, screen door failure and communication failure. By integrating 5 types of accidents, the top five risk factors are signal failure, vehicle failure, communication failure, violation and electrified device failure.关键词
地铁运营安全/风险因素/解释结构模型/模糊认知图Key words
Metro operation safety/risk factors/interpretive structural modeling/fuzzy cognitive maps分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
吴海涛,罗霞..基于ISM-FCM的地铁运营风险因素演化分析与权重计算[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2017,15(3):41-48,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51605398) （51605398）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2682016CX048) （2682016CX048）
四川省科技厅软科学项目(2016ZR0030) （2016ZR0030）
成都市科技局软科学项目(2015-RK00-00033-ZF). （2015-RK00-00033-ZF）
