南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.41Issue(5)：49-56,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201612022
基于CA⁃Markov模型的喀斯特地区县域生态系统服务价值动态模拟
Dynamic simulation of future ecosystem service value in Puding County, Guizhou Province based on CA?Markov model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Exploring the variations in land use and ecosystem service value in a typical Karst land area in Puding County plays an important role in the implementation of a"grain?for?green" restoration project.[Method]We de?termined land use/land cover and landscape patterns based on the classification results of a CART decision tree using"3S" technology. The ecological system services values for the period of 1999 to 2015 were estimated based on the eco?logical principles. Combined with a CA?Markov model, the land use pattern and ecological system services value of 2021 was predicted. [Result]The ecological system services value steadily increased from 1999 to 2015. The forest, field and water landscape areas were the largest part of the ecological system services, collectively providing more than 90% of the total ecological system services value. Water conservation, soil formation and protection, and waste disposal were almost 50% of the total contribution to total land?use ecosystem service values.[Conclusion]The leading factor in the changes in ecological system service value in the study area was the grain?for?green project. Results of the forecast showed that the total ecological system services value of Puding County in 2021 would be 9.58 billion Yuan, a decrease of 0.3 billion Yuan compared to 2015.关键词
生态系统服务价值/CA⁃Markov模型/土地利用/景观格局/驱动机制/喀斯特地区/贵州普定Key words
ecosystem service value/CA⁃Markov model/land use/landscape pattern/driving mechanism/Karst land⁃form area/Puding County of Guizhou Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
吕国屏,廖承锐,徐雁南,张婷,李海东..基于CA⁃Markov模型的喀斯特地区县域生态系统服务价值动态模拟[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,41(5):49-56,8.基金项目
江苏省林业三新工程项目(LYSX[2015]19) （LYSX[2015]19）
