农业现代化研究2017，Vol.38Issue(5)：737-745,9.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0089
肉类消费结构、饲料安全和粮食安全——农业"供给侧改革"的一个参照系
Meat consumption structure, feed security, and grain security: Implication for the "supply-side reform" in agriculture
摘要
Abstract
Soaring demand and changing structure of meat consumption challenged China's grain market. Predicting feed grain demand has strong policy implications for grain security in the context of agricultural "supply-side reform". This study estimates the feed grain demand using the meat consumption data and the feed-meat conversion ratio. In addition, this paper also presents a projection on feed grain demand from the perspective of changing income elasticity, economic growth, demographic change and urbanization. Results show that the total feed grain demand will increase from almost 200 million tons in 2014 to 395 million tons in 2050; and the share of feed grain in total grain will rise from 32.52％ to 58.79％ during the same period. Soaring feed grain demand threats the self-sufficient rate and increases trade dependence, implying that feed security will dominate grain security in China in the near future. Our study provides valuable implications for the agricultural supply-side reform.关键词
肉类消费/供给侧改革/饲料粮需求/预测/粮食安全/饲料安全Key words
meat consumption/supply-side reform/feed-grain demand/forecast/grain security/feed security分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
钞贺森,田旭,于晓华..肉类消费结构、饲料安全和粮食安全——农业"供给侧改革"的一个参照系[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(5):737-745,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71473123) （71473123）
国家社科基金重大项目(14ZDA037) （14ZDA037）
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目.National Natural Science Foundation of China (71473123) （71473123）
Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (14ZDA037) （14ZDA037）
Project Supported by Construction of Dominant Disciplines in Jiangsu. （）
