农业现代化研究2017，Vol.38Issue(5)：801-808,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0051
我国农机产业存在产能过剩吗?——基于中国农机产业数据的实证分析
An empirical analysis of the excess capacity problem of China's agricultural machinery industry
摘要
Abstract
After a decade of fast growth in China, the problems inside of the agricultural machinery industry have turned out to be obvious though China has become the largest country of production and consumption of agricultural machinery products. Excess capacity becomes a main concern of the industry. Based on the panel data of China Industry Business Performance from 1998 to 2013, and applying the "frontier method", this paper estimates and analyzes the excess capacity index of agricultural machinery industry and explores the key influencing factors of the overcapacity problem. Results show that the average capacity utilization rates are below the US Federal Reserve standard by 79％ and the average index ranges from 0.3 to 0.9. Overcapacity is severe now and the fluctuation of its extent is synchronous with economic cycle. In addition, business investment, industry competition, and labor productivity are the main factors causing the excess capacity of the agricultural machinery industry in China. In contrast, export can reduce the excess capacity of the agricultural machinery industry in China. Therefore, to well control the overcapacity problem of China's agricultural machinery industry, this paper suggests: to improve the entry and exit mechanism of enterprises, to promote the annexation and reorganization of those agricultural machinery companies, to explore overseas markets to absorb some excess capacity, and to enhance macro policy guidance for the industry.关键词
农机产业/产能过剩/边界法/产能利用率/面板数据模型Key words
agricultural machinery industry/excess capacity/frontier method/excess capacity rate/panel data model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
周应恒,蒋奇,胡凌啸..我国农机产业存在产能过剩吗?——基于中国农机产业数据的实证分析[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(5):801-808,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(71333008) （71333008）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA037). Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (71333008) （14ZDA037）
Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China (14ZDA037). （14ZDA037）
