电网技术2017，Vol.41Issue(10)：3153-3160,8.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2017.1729
基于场景分区的随机潮流解析算法
Probabilistic Power Flow Analytic Algorithm Based on Scenario Partition
摘要
Abstract
With increasing penetration of renewable energy in power system, fluctuation of random factors ranges more widely, posing a great challenge to accuracy of conventional cumulant method. In this paper, a new probabilistic power flow method based on scenario partition is proposed. Scenario reduction algorithm is used to obtain typical working scenario of power system, and, on this basis, several scenario sets are generated. In each scenario set, the cumulant method is used to calculate probabilistic power flow. Overall distribution of power flow is obtained using total probability formula. The new probabilistic power flow algorithm based on scenario partition proposed in this paper completes partitioning operation of initial scenario database, and fluctuation range of the random factors is limited to the scenario set where they lie. Thus, the fluctuation of random factors is reduced equivalently, so the drawback is eliminated that the probabilistic power flow of power system with high proportion renewable energy cannot be accurately obtained with conventional cumulant method.Effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified on the modified IEEE-118 system.关键词
可再生能源/精度/场景分区/场景集/半不变量法/全概率公式Key words
renewable energy/accuracy/scenario partition/scenario set/cumulant method/total probability formula分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
连浩然,周保荣,秦鹏,王彤,别朝红..基于场景分区的随机潮流解析算法[J].电网技术,2017,41(10):3153-3160,8.基金项目
南方电网公司重点科技项目(CSGTRC-K163007).2016 Major Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid (CSGTRC-K163007). （CSGTRC-K163007）
