南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.41Issue(4)：25-29,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201608010
基于MaxEnt模型的青钱柳潜在适宜栽培区预测
MaxEnt model-based identification of potential Cyclocarya paliurus cultivation regions
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Cyclocarya paliurus is a valuable tree species that is used for commercial timber,medicine and landscaping.Using percent contribution value,permutation replacement important values and the Jackknife test,the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of C.paliurus were evaluated,in order to provide a theoretical basis for the species' protection and conservation.[Method] Based on 183 presence records and eight environmental variables,we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of C.paliurus,as well as areas suitable for its cultivation.[Result] The accuracy of the MaxEnt model for predicting the potential distribution of C.paliurus was very high,and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC value) was 0.964 ± 0.006.According to the model,southern Zhejiang,northwestern Fujian,southern Anhui,eastern Hubei,eastern and western Jiangxi,eastern and western Hunan,eastern Guizhou,eastern Chongqing,southern shaanxi,and northeastern Sichuan are currently highly suitable for planting C.paliurus.As global temperatures increase in future,C.paliurus will likely expand its distribution to higher latitudes and altitudes.[Conclusion] The main factors affecting the potential distribution of C.paliurus were related to air temperature,including annual mean temperature,seasonal variation and mean diurnal temperature range,moreover annual mean temperature was the most important factor.关键词
青钱柳/MaxEnt模型/潜在分布/气候因子/适宜栽培区Key words
Cyclocarya paliurus/MaxEnt model/potential distribution/climate factor/suitable cultivation region分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘清亮,李垚,方升佐..基于MaxEnt模型的青钱柳潜在适宜栽培区预测[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,41(4):25-29,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31270673) （31270673）
江苏省第四期“333工程”培养资金资助项目(BRA2015318) （BRA2015318）
