气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(5)：428-438,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.134
全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响
The Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the Carbon Emission Space and Mitigation Cost of China, EU and Japan Under Constraints of Global Carbon Emission Space
摘要
Abstract
Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, this article assesses the impacts of the United States' (U.S.) withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on China, European Union (EU) and Japan in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2 ℃ scenarios due to changed emission pathway of U.S. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among countries, the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2℃ target, the carbon price will increase by 4.4-14.6 US$/t in China, by 9.7-35.4 US$/t in EU, and by 16.0-53.5 US$/t in Japan. In addition, China, EU and Japan will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2℃ target in 2030, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$ 22.0 billion-71.1 billion (equivalent to 16.4-53.1 US$ per capita), EU's GDP loss would rise by US$ 9.4 billion-32.1 billion (equivalent to 20.7-71.1 US$ per capita), and Japan's GDP loss will rise by US$ 4.1 billion-13.5 billion (equivalent to 34.3-111.6 US$ per capita).关键词
美国退出《巴黎协定》/碳排放空间/减排成本Key words
U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement/carbon emission space/mitigation cost引用本文复制引用
戴瀚程,张海滨,王文涛..全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(5):428-438,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部 2017 年应急管理项目"美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响及我国的应对策略" （）
