气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(5)：465-472,8.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.159
1.5℃增暖对全球和区域影响的研究进展
Research Progress in Impact of 1.5 ℃ Global Warming on Global and Regional Scales
摘要
Abstract
The Paris Agreement indicates "to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels to reduce the risk and impact of climate change". Then, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invite IPCC to provide a special report on impact and related pathways of greenhouse gases emissions for 1.5℃ global warming. Under 2℃ global warming, the risk of some types of extreme events will further increase; Some vulnerable systems, such as ecosystems and agricultural systems, will suffer more serious consequences. At the same time, the world will face more server consequences of sea surface level rise, coral reefs degradation and monsoon precipitation decrease. Regional responses to global warming with various magnitudes also show great differences. In general, limit temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ rather than 2 ℃ can further reduce risk of climate change. To understand 1.5 ℃ related issues more clearly, higher resolution models and more experiments specifically designed for 1.5℃ global warming are needed in order to quantitatively analyze its impacts on natural and human systems at global and regional scales.关键词
1.5℃增暖/全球气候变化/区域气候变化/影响/风险Key words
1.5 ℃ global warming/global climate change/regional climate change/impact/risk引用本文复制引用
翟盘茂,余荣,周佰铨,陈阳,郭建平,卢燕宇..1.5℃增暖对全球和区域影响的研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(5):465-472,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575094) （41575094）
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF210746) （CCSF210746）
