气象科学2017，Vol.37Issue(4)：466-477,12.DOI:10.3969/2016jms.0040
两种基于雷达的临近预报算法在赣江流域的应用
Application of two radar-based nowcasting methods over Ganjiang River basin
摘要
Abstract
The Muti-scale Tracking Radar Echoes by Cross-correlation scheme (MTREC) and Pixel-Based Nowcasting algorithm (PBN) are selected and applied over Ganjiang River basin in this study.The nowcasting precipitation for 1-3 h leading time by the two methods were evaluated to summarize the nowcasting abilities and characteristics of the two nowcasting methods.Results indicate that:(1) with the leading time increasing,the variation of the forecasting abilities of the MTREC method is gentle,while the PBN method is getting worse.(2)The precipitation magnitude forecasted by the MTREC method is smaller than RQPE,and the low precipitation forecasted by the MTREC method is closer to RQPE;the PBN method is on the contrary.(3) The precipitation area forecasted by the MTREC method is smaller than RQPE,and the low precipitation area forecasted by the MTREC method is closer to RQPE;the PBN is on the contrary.(4) As the leading time increasing,the changing for Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of precipitation forecasted by the MTREC method is stable and matches well with the PDF of RQPE,while the PDF of the precipitation (＞0.4 mm/h) forecasted by the PBN method is larger than that of RQPE and the PDF of the precipitation (＜0.4 mm/h) forecasted by the PBN method is smaller than that of ROPE.关键词
雷达临近预报/定量降水估算/定量降水预报/降水检验Key words
Radar-based nowcasting/Quantitative precipitation estimation/Quantitative precipitation forecast/Precipitation evaluation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李娜,勾亚彬,唐国强,赵平,洪阳..两种基于雷达的临近预报算法在赣江流域的应用[J].气象科学,2017,37(4):466-477,12.基金项目
国家重点实验室开放基金(2013LASW-A09) （2013LASW-A09）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(91437214) （91437214）
