生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(18)：6099-6110,12.DOI:10.5846/stxb201606241240
气候变化对甘肃省农业气候资源和主要作物栽培格局的影响
Effects of climate change on agro climatic resources and potential primary cropping patterns in Gansu Province
摘要
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on agro climatic resources characteristics were assessed for Gansu Province in Northwest China.The analysis used data from 80 meteorological stations and the regionalization index for maize (Zea mays),spring wheat (Triticumaestivum),winter wheat (Triticumaestivum) and potato (Solanum tuberosum) for the period from 1961 to 2014.The analysis was conducted using two sub periods,1961-1986 and 1987-2014.Results indicated that the average temperature,the negative accumulated temperature,≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature,and ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature in the first period increased by 0.83℃ · d,113.9℃ · d,290℃ · d and 180℃ · d,respectively,compared with the second period.The Climatic tendency of rainfall was-34-16mm/10a with a decreasing trend.The resulting cropping patters were mapped using a geographic information system (GIS),Comparing the first period,the unsuitable areas of spring wheat planting increased by 9％,but the optimum,suitable and less suitable areas of spring wheat planting in the second period decreased by 1.4％,4.1％ and 4.8％,respectively,with an even stronger decrease,in the Hexi corridor and the middle regions of the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province.While the suitable and less suitable areas of winter wheat planting increased by 6％ and 3.4％ in the second period,respectively;however the optimum,cultivable and unsuitable areas were reduced by 0.4％,3.5％ and 5.7％;with an even stronger reduction in the middle regions of the loess plateau of Gansu Province.The optimum and cultivable areas for maize increased by 13％ and 7％,in the second periods,respectively;but the suitable,less suitable and unsuitable areas were reduced by 11％,2％ and 7％,with an even stronger reduction observed for the Hexi corridor of Gansu Province.The optimum and suitable areas of potato decreased by 3.8％ and 0.7％in the second periods,respectively,but the less suitable and cultivable areas increased by 3.5％ and 1.3％;with an even larger increase in the middle regions of the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province.The countermeasures of adjusting agricultural structure and crop patterns to adapt to climate changes.关键词
气候变化/农业气候资源/栽培格局/甘肃省/对策Key words
climate change/agro climatic resources/crop patterns/Gansu Province/countermeasures引用本文复制引用
王鹤龄,张强,王润元,吕晓东,王力,张镭,齐月..气候变化对甘肃省农业气候资源和主要作物栽培格局的影响[J].生态学报,2017,37(18):6099-6110,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41305134) （41305134）
国家自然科学重点基金(41630426) （41630426）
公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY201506001-2) （气象）
国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955304)资助 （2012CB955304）
