电测与仪表2017，Vol.54Issue(18)：48-53,6.
交流电弧炉供电网波动电压超短期混沌预测方法
Chaotic prediction of fluctuant voltage time series acquired from EAF power supply grid
摘要
Abstract
In order to solve the problem of flicker produced by EAF operation, it is a prerequisite to analyze the char-acteristics of voltage time series of EAF power supply grid and to conduct voltage prediction.The phase space of volt-age time series is firstly reconstructed, the optimal delayed time and embedding dimension are determined by using mutual information method and Cao′s method, and the maximum Lyapunov exponent is calculated, it is proved that the fluctuation voltage of the power supply grid has chaotic characteristics.Using the largest Lyapunov exponent meth-od and weighted first-order local method to predict the voltage in ultra short term.The results show that the chaotic prediction can reflect the EAF power supply grid voltage fluctuating trend, and the ultra short term forecast precision is high, so the latter one is better.Therefore, the weighted first-order local method is more suitable for predicting the fluctuant voltage of EAF power supply grid.关键词
交流电弧炉/电压时间序列/混沌预测/最大Lyapunov指数/加权一阶局域预测法Key words
AC EAF/voltage time series/chaotic prediction/maximum Lyapunov exponent/local weighted one-rank prediction method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王育飞,孙路,张剑云,薛花..交流电弧炉供电网波动电压超短期混沌预测方法[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(18):48-53,6.基金项目
上海市自然科学基金资助项目(15ZR1418000) （15ZR1418000）
上海市教委科研创新基金资助项目(12YZ138) （12YZ138）
