大豆科学2017，Vol.36Issue(5)：789-795,7.DOI:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0789
基于ARIMA模型的我国大豆单产预测分析
Prediction on Chinese Soybean Yield Based on ARIMA Model
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the potentials of Chinese soybean yield per unit are estimated by light use efficiency (LUE) and agricultural ecological zoning (AEZ) model,based on which the soybean yield before 2020 were predicted by ARIMA model.The results showed that maximum potential of Chinese soybean yield in long future estimated by AEZ model was 3 400 kg·ha-1,while the yield in 2017,2018,2019 and 2020,predicted by ARIMA model,was 1 899,1 926,1 954 and 1 982 kg·ha-1,respectively,with 55.85％,56.65％,57.47％ and 58.29％ of its maximum potential,correspondingly.The results signified that higher improvement opportunities for Chinese soybean production come from both sustaining the productivity of high yield fields and ameliorating middle and low ones,which would provide reference significance to guiding national practice.关键词
ARIMA模型/大豆/单产Key words
ARIMA model/Soybean/Yield分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
蔡承智,莫洪兰,梁颖..基于ARIMA模型的我国大豆单产预测分析[J].大豆科学,2017,36(5):789-795,7.基金项目
贵州省科技计划(黔科合基础[2016]1527-1). （黔科合基础[2016]1527-1）
