哈尔滨工程大学学报2017，Vol.38Issue(9)：1391-1398,8.DOI:10.11990/jheu.201605025
船舶引航过程风险马尔科夫链模型动态仿真
Markov chain model for the dynamic simulation of process risk in ship pilotage at harbor
摘要
Abstract
The dynamic system simulation of effective ship embarking or disembarking at harbors is necessary to quantitatively analyze and identify risk evolution in ship pilotage in specific waters for safety control.In this study, the working process of the pilotage operation of a ship in port waters is analyzed and the risk degrees of different ship pilotage operation tasks are determined.The calculation result shows that the transfer of pilotage state complies with Markov steady-state characteristics and remains stable after tide-type fluctuations.In addition, the transferring variable remarkably affects the whole ship flow in the harbor.The dynamic system simulation model with the Mark-ov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is suitable for the risk analysis of maritime traffic risk and can provide the basic law for the evolution of risk in the safety management of marine traffic.关键词
风险评估/风险仿真/船舶引航/马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛/船舶流量/港口交通/马尔科夫链/动态系统仿真Key words
risk assessment/risk simulation/ship pilotage/Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ship flow/harbour traffic/Markov Chain/dynamic system simulation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
胡甚平,黄常海,邓华,黄道正..船舶引航过程风险马尔科夫链模型动态仿真[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2017,38(9):1391-1398,8.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金项目(2016M591651) （2016M591651）
国家自然科学基金项目(51279099) （51279099）
上海市自然科学基金项目(12ZR1412500). （12ZR1412500）
