中国医疗设备2017，Vol.32Issue(10)：149-152,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-1633.2017.10.041
基于自回归移动平均模型的医疗设备效益预测
Profits Prediction of Medical Equipment Based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
姜天 1郑小溪 1刘倪1
作者信息
- 1. 广州军区武汉总医院 医学工程科,湖北 武汉 430070
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective This paper predicted the benefit of medical equipment of five clinical departments by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and tried to turn the post hoc analysis of using benefit to ex ante assessment. Methods We collated and summarized medical equipment benefit data to forecast by ARIMA model and observed fitting degree between the predicted value and the actual value at the time it reaches the optimal model. Results Five representative departments were selected to obtained optimal ARIMA model. In cardiovascular medicine, urology and ultrasound imaging departments, the predicted value and the actual value were very close, but the predicted value was not smooth in gastroenterology and ophthalmology departments. Conclusion ARIMA model is an exploratory, innovative method to predict the benefit of medical equipment, which has a certain reference value.关键词
医疗设备管理/效益预测/ARIMA模型/拟合度检验Key words
medical equipment management/benefit prediction/ARIMA model/test of goodness of fit分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
姜天,郑小溪,刘倪..基于自回归移动平均模型的医疗设备效益预测[J].中国医疗设备,2017,32(10):149-152,4.
