中国电机工程学报2017，Vol.37Issue(19)：5633-5642,10.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.162052
考虑风电不确定性的概率区间潮流模型与算法
Model and Algorithm of Probabilistic Interval Power Flow Considering Wind Power Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
This paper constructed the basic probability assignments (BPAs) of wind farm's stochastic output and uncertainty bus load based on evidence theory,and presented a probabilistic interval power flow (PIPF) model and its algorithm for power system.Through constructing the multi-dimension probability assignment of uncertain input variables,the PIPF problem was transformed into several interval power flow (IPF) problems.And these IPF problems were solved by interval optimization (IO) method to obtain the interval extreme value of the variables in power flow.At last,the plausibility cumulative probability distribution (PCPD) and the belief cumulative probability distribution (BCPD) of variables in power flow were established.The numerical results of IEEE 30 and 118-bus systems indicate that,the proposed PIPF can be regarded as a uniform model of the probabilistic power flow (PPF) and interval power flow,and the maximum probability and minimum probability of variables value in power flow are judged by the obtained PCPD and BCPD.It has good directive significance for the operation of electric power system.关键词
电力系统/风力发电/概率区间潮流/证据理论/基本可信度分配/区间优化法Key words
power system/wind power/probabilistic interval power flow (PIPF)/evidence theory/basic probability assignment (BPA)/interval optimization (IO) method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
鲍海波,韦化,郭小璇,李滨..考虑风电不确定性的概率区间潮流模型与算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(19):5633-5642,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2013CB228205) （973计划）
国家自然科学基金项目(51667003).The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(2013CB228205) （51667003）
National Natural Science Foundation of China (51667003). （51667003）
