灾害学2017，Vol.32Issue(3)：107-111,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2017.03.019
阜新夏季异常降水在太阳活动周期的规律研究
Research on the Law of Summer Anomalous Precipitation in Fuxin in the Solar Cycle
摘要
Abstract
Using the relative sunspot numbers and summer precipitation in Fuxin from 1951 to 2015,the summer abnormal precipitation laws in Fuxin are analyzed.The results show that the number of summer abnormal more precipitation years is slightly more than that of summer abnormal less precipitation years in Fuxin in the solar cycle.The maximum percentage of anomaly of Fuxin summer abnormal Precipitation is 99.5％,and the minimum value is -52.7％;The probability of summer abnormal precipitation in Fuxin in the cycle of sunspot Valley is more thanthat in the cycle of sunspot peak;The maximum probability of abnormal more precipitation years is 0.6 in summer,The maximum of probability of abnormal less precipitation years is 0.67 in summer;The year of continuous summer abnormal Less precipitation often occurred in the year of M and M + 1 in the cycle of sunspot peak;The year of continuous summer abnormal more precipitation often occurred in the year of m-1 and m in the cycle of sunspot valley;The year of minimum average summer precipitation in Fuxin is in the year of M of the cycle of sunspot peak;The year of maximum average precipitation in Fuxin is in the year of m-1 of the cycle of sunspot valley;The summer precipitation in Fuxin has a quasi periodic variation of 2 to 3 years in the solar cycle;The quasi symmetry axis of summer precipitation in Fuxin is near sunspot peak year (M) and Valley year (m);The average summer precipitation in Fuxin is inversely related to the sunspot number in the solar cycle;After the year of M of the cycle of sunspot peak,the transition year of less rain to more rain is in the year of M + 2;After the year of m of the cycle of sunspot Valley,the transition year of more rain to less rain is in the year of m + 3.The important research results were provide for the monitoring of Fuxin summer abnormal rainfall,climate prediction,drought and flood disaster decision-making service.The rare summer drought and drought to rainy climate have been accurately predicted with the results from 2014 to 2016 in Fuxin.关键词
太阳黑子/太阳活动周期/夏季/异常降水/规律/辽宁阜新Key words
sunspot/solar activity cycle/summer/abnormal precipitation/law/Fuxin city of Liaoning Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
马晓刚,李凝,张旭,赵连伟,李冬梅,李辑..阜新夏季异常降水在太阳活动周期的规律研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):107-111,5.基金项目
财政部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306021) （气象）
