北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.53Issue(4)：472-478,7.DOI:10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2017.04.016
径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应——以渭河流域为例
Quantifying impacts of climate variations and human activity on the runoff in Weihe River basin
摘要
Abstract
Quantifying the impact of climate changes and human activity on runoff has practical significance for regional water resource management.In this study,we used trend test,change point analysis,and multiple linear regression to analyze the impact of climate changes and human activities on runoff,based on measured runoff data and natural runoff data reconstructed previously by others.We further verified our results by comparing with hydrologic sensitivity analysis.Our results indicated that runoff decreased significantly from 1965-2012 at Huaxian,Zhangjiashan and Zhuangtou stations,with trends of 7.99 × 108 m3· (10 a)-1 (α＜0.05),2.86 × 108 m3 · (10 a)-1 (α＜0.05),and 0.787 × 108 m3 · (10 a)-1 (α＜0.05) respectively.Also,in Weihe River,a significant negative trend in wind speed and relative humidity was detected,whereas temperature showed a positive trend (α＜0.05).Relative humidity of Jinghe Basin was in significant negative trend,PET and temperature showed significant increase trend (α＜0.05).Variations of all meteorological factors in Beiluohe Basin were in the same trend as in Jinghe Basin.The runoff turning points were 1993,1996 and 1994 at Huaxian Zhangjiashan and Zhuangtou gauging stations,respectively.After these turning points,runoff at all three gauging stations fell by 38.81％,47.67％,and 42.22％ respectively.Multiple regression analysis showed that at Huaxian,Zhangjiashan,and Zhuangtou stations,climate change made a contribution rate of 49.30％,38.05％,69.86％ to runoff variation.Hydrologic sensitivity analysis was similar to multiple regression analysis.Contribution rates of climate change in runoff variation were 48.61％,39.21％,and 64.86％,respectively,at these 3 gauging stations.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/径流变化/渭河流域Key words
climate change/human activity/runoff variation/Weihe River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈抒晨,赵安周,朱秀芳,潘耀忠..径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应——以渭河流域为例[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,53(4):472-478,7.基金项目
国家高分辨率对地观测重大专项基金资助项目(民用部分) （民用部分）
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130003120041) （20130003120041）
